Uncertainty, data and the bell curve.
Populations and samples, kinds of data, sampling methods and bias, frequency tables, and how experiments differ from observational studies.
Graphing distributions, the mean and median, standard deviation and z-scores, and quartiles, box plots and outliers.
Sample spaces and events, the addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability with tables and trees, and Bayes' theorem.
Probability distributions for counts, expected value and standard deviation, and the binomial, geometric, hypergeometric and Poisson distributions.
Probability as area under a density curve, the uniform and exponential distributions, and the normal distribution with z-scores and percentiles.
Why averages and totals of many random values are approximately normal, the standard error, and the normal approximation for proportions.
Estimating a mean or proportion with a margin of error: z intervals, the t distribution, intervals for proportions, and choosing a sample size.
Null and alternative hypotheses, Type I and II errors, p-values, and tests for a mean (z and t) and for a proportion.
Tests for the difference of two means with independent samples, matched pairs, and the difference of two proportions.
Testing whether counts fit a claimed distribution, and whether two categorical variables are independent.
Scatter plots and the correlation coefficient, the least-squares line, residuals and r², and logistic regression for yes-or-no outcomes.
Comparing several group means at once with the F statistic.

The Poisson distribution

Confidence intervals for a mean, with z and t

Hypothesis tests, p-values, Type I and II errors, and power

Residuals, r² and influential points

Binomial distribution and the Central Limit Theorem

The sigmoid and probability

Histograms, cumulative frequency and percentiles

Probability as long-run relative frequency

Confidence intervals for a proportion

Matched pairs vs two independent samples

The chi-square test of independence

Bayes' rule with independent evidence

Entropy as expected surprise, and information gain

Standardizing with z-scores

Bayes' theorem

Contingency tables, conditional rates and confounding

Percentiles and inverse normal calculations

The one-sample t-test and the t distribution

Populations, samples and sampling bias

Measures of center and spread, and resistance to outliers

Continuous distributions: uniform and exponential densities

Comparing two proportions with a z-test

The chi-square goodness-of-fit test